|Conditional probability: probability of an event if another event is given.|
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|Conditional Probability||I 33
Conditional Probability/Cartwright: is the measure of efficiency.
Conditional Probability/Harper/Gibbard/Cartwright: can be deceiving. - E.g. it is indeed the case that the owners of the insurance policy live longer, but it would be a poor strategy, to buy one in order to get a longer life. Solution/Cartwright: counterfactual conditionals - It's not about how many live longer, but the probability that a person lives longer if they buy one. - Problem: testing probability for counterfactual conditionals -> Kripke/((s) because we invent the possible worlds) - apparent conditional probability: is not a measure with linked causes.
Conditional probability: elimination of causal laws. - Instead: association, common occurrence.
Partial Conditional Probability/Cartwright: Important argument: it holds all and only the causal factors fixed.
How the laws of physics lie Oxford New York 1983