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Benefit/Black: product of value and probability minus costs - ((s) E.g. small benefit, high probability corresponds to inverse proportion of great benefit/low probability) - Black: Problem: quantification of benefit, so that a conversion becomes useful - Benefit/Black: for given cost the positive or negative development of the benefit depends on the probability and the rating. Sufficiently high ratings always secure a benefit.
Political Elections/Benefits/Black: Suppose one vote does not make a difference, only at least 100 would: - then the problem reproduces itself on the line between 99 and 100. - E.g. Suppose you know that your own vote does not matter - then the benefit is negative. - i.e., the costs exceed it - then it is irrational to vote - Problem: if others also follow this premise, it is wrong! - Self-denying prophecy. - Variant: if Joe is late, then the election is "already decided" - Vs: every vote counts equally.
Similarly: the individual vote is not critical, as long as not too many others also abstain - that refutes itself if followed consistently. - BlackVs: this should not be. - Ad III 157
((s) this comes down to an epistemic rather than ontological problem.
Solution/Black: I want as many voters of my party as possible to vote - that includes myself - (no categorical argument, but the best one possible).
Bedeutung und Intention
Handlung, Kommunikation, Bedeutung, G. Meggle (Hg), Frankfurt/M 1979
Sprache München 1973
The Prevalence of Humbug Ithaca/London 1983