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|Reliability Theory||II 96
Reliability Theory/Reliability/FieldVsReliability theory: Problem: most people are not reliable about politics. - False: to say that they are under "abnormal conditions". - Correct: they are not under optimal conditions. - Problem: Optimum: is difficult to determine non-intentionally. - Problem: E.g. a sect member is not reliable in relation to reality but reliable in relation to the opinions of the guru.
Solution: FieldVsStalnaker: needs something that he does not want: more delicate belief states than those with Boolean structure.
Reliability/Field: cannot be everything we strive for. For example, there are completely reliable inductive rules: e.g. to believe in nothing at all, no matter what evidence there is. - E.g. to only believe in logical truths - but the theory of reliability wants more. It wants to pick out a special class which constitutes the rationality of a believe. - Reliability/Field: is divided into many different terms: a) over short - over long time - b) high probability exact truth - high probability approximate truth - c) providing reliability in the actual world. - Reliability via a lot of similar possible worlds.
Reliability/Field: For example, an initial observation turns out to be wrong. - Three possibilities:
i): The rule is not reliable at the beginning, but it becomes more reliable.
ii) there is no rule at the beginning, the later ones are better. (FieldVs, GoldmanVs.) - Vs: this makes reliability unreachable and declares us to be unreasonable forever.
iii) The rule was always reliable, only the observation period was too short.
Field: we also need goals and effectiveness: then a rule can be more reliable but less powerful.
Realism, Mathematics and Modality Oxford New York 1989
Truth and the Absence of Fact Oxford New York 2001
Science without numbers Princeton New Jersey 1980