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Probability/subjectivism/subjective probability/Lewis: pro subjectivism: beliefs about probabality are relevant. - Only subjectivism can understand them.
It is possible that we also believe from a coin which showed 85% head in the past that the chance next time is 50%.
Resilience/Skyrms: Elasticity: uncertainty cannot be shaken by new information. - Beliefs about results and prospects may differ.
Solution: The chance of t that A is true is a non-rigid designator.
Believe/reasonable/probability/opportunities/Lewis: Degrees of believe about results that are based on certainty of chances are elastic (resilient, relatively immune to new information) if the new information is permissible (i.e. after the event).
Principal Principle/main principle/probability/opportunity/Lewis: the Principal Principle is to be modeled according to our experience with direct conclusions.
Exceptions: 1) it is about opportunity, not frequency.
2) Certainty of probabilities (opportunities) contributes to the resilience (resistance to new information).
Probability/Lewis: is shifted. - Never created or destroyed. - So the sum is always 1.
Die Identität von Körper und Geist Frankfurt 1989
Konventionen Berlin 1975
Philosophical Papers Bd I New York Oxford 1983
Philosophical Papers Bd II New York Oxford 1986
Cl. I. Lewis
Mind and the World Order: Outline of a Theory of Knowledge (Dover Books on Western Philosophy) 1991