Economics Dictionary of ArgumentsHome
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| Climate history: Climate history studies the long-term patterns and changes in Earth's climate over geological time spans. It examines variations in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic factors, often through analysis of geological records, ice cores, sediment layers, and historical documents. Understanding past climates helps in predicting future trends and assessing the impact of human activities on the environment. See also Climate change, Climate Data._____________Annotation: The above characterizations of concepts are neither definitions nor exhausting presentations of problems related to them. Instead, they are intended to give a short introduction to the contributions below. – Lexicon of Arguments. | |||
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Raphael Neukom on Climate History - Dictionary of Arguments
Neukom I 550 Climate History/Climate Coherence/Climate Periods/Climate Epochs/Global Warming/Neukom: Here we test the hypothesis that there were globally coherent climate epochs over the Common Era by using a collection of probabilistic, global temperature reconstructions for the period 1–2000 ad, derived from a set of six different ensemble field reconstruction methodologies (…). At the original annual resolution, the reconstruction ensemble mean shows no clear indication of a long period of years with globally consistent below-average temperatures relative to the mean for 1–2000 ad (…). Of the years before 1850, 97% had at least 10% of the globe experiencing above-average temperatures, and 10% of the globe experiencing below-average temperatures. It is only if the reconstructed time series are smoothed over multi-decadal timescales (…). I 551 To quantify the spatial coherence of cold and warm epochs, we consider the time of occurrence of a climate anomaly as the variable to be characterized within a probabilistic framework. We calculate the most probable period of peak warming or cooling during each of the five climatic epochs (…) (>Climate Periods/Neukom). (…) we identify the warmest 51-year average within the epochs commonly referred to as warm [and] we identify the coldest 51-year average for the DACP [Dark Ages Cold Period] and LIA [Little Ice Age] cold epochs. Findings: There is considerable spatial heterogeneity in the timing of temperature maxima and minima. No preindustrial epoch shows global coherence in the timing of the coldest or warmest periods. There is, however, regional coherence. I 552 In contrast to the spatial heterogeneity of the preindustrial era, the highest probability for peak warming over the entire Common Era is found in the late twentieth century almost everywhere (98% of global surface area), except for Antarctica, where contemporary warming has not yet been observed over the entire continent(1). Thus, even though the recent warming rates are not entirely homogeneous over the globe, with isolated areas showing little warming or even cooling(1,2) the climate system is now in a state of global temperature coherence that is unprecedented over the Common Era. Through a bootstrapping uncertainty analysis we find that the particular spatial patterns (…) are robust. Furthermore, the heterogeneity in the timing of maxima and minima is an inherent property of the input proxy data, which show a similar lack of global coherence in the timing of each putative climate epoch. (…) peak preindustrial warm and cool periods occurred at different times in different locations. By contrast, the CWP [current warm period] shows distinct temporal and spatial agreement, with the warmest multidecadal peak of the Common Era occurring in the late twentieth century. The area fraction agreeing on the timing of the CWP is significantly larger than that expected from stochastic climate variability (…). (…) as in the reconstructions, the spatial consistency seen in model simulations over the twentieth century suggests that anthropogenic global warming is the cause of increased spatial temperature coherence relative to prior eras. Vs: An important caveat to our results is that the spatiotemporal distribution of high-resolution proxy data is inherently unequal and often sparse. VsVs: However, [future] improvements are unlikely to lead to greater global coherence when the extant proxy data do not show indications of such. Conclusion: Peak warming and cooling events appear to be regionally constrained. Anomalous globally averaged temperatures during certain periods do not imply the existence of epochs of globally coherent and synchronous climate. This global asynchronicity suggests that multidecadal regional extremes are driven by regionally specific mechanisms, namely either unforced internal climate variability(3,4) or regionally varying responses to external forcing(5–7). >Climate Periods/Neukom. Cf. >Emission permits, >Emission reduction credits, >Emission targets, >Emissions, >Emissions trading, >Climate change, >Climate damage, >Energy policy, >Clean Energy Standards, >Climate data, >Climate history, >Climate justice, >Climate periods, >Climate targets, >Climate impact research, >Carbon price, >Carbon price coordination, >Carbon price strategies, >Carbon tax, >Carbon tax strategies. 1. Stenni, B. et al. Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years. Clim. Past 13, 1609–1634 (2017). 2. Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G. & Saba, V. Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nature 556, 191–196 (2018). 3. Wang, J. et al. Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1,200 years. Nat. Geosci. 10, 512–517 (2017). 4. Delworth, T. L. et al. The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere. Nat. Geosci. 9, 509–512 (2016). 5. Hegerl, G. C., Brönnimann, S., Schurer, A. & Cowan, T. The early 20th century warming: anomalies, causes, and consequences. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change 9, e522 (2018). 6. Abram, N. J. et al. Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents. Nature 536, 411–418 (2016); corrigendum 545, 252 (2017). 7. Bindoff, N. L. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 867–952 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013). Raphael Neukom, Nathan Steiger, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Jianghao Wang & Johannes P. Werner, 2019: “No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era”. In: Nature, Vol. 571, pp. 550–554._____________Explanation of symbols: Roman numerals indicate the source, arabic numerals indicate the page number. The corresponding books are indicated on the right hand side. ((s)…): Comment by the sender of the contribution. Translations: Dictionary of Arguments The note [Concept/Author], [Author1]Vs[Author2] or [Author]Vs[term] resp. "problem:"/"solution:", "old:"/"new:" and "thesis:" is an addition from the Dictionary of Arguments. If a German edition is specified, the page numbers refer to this edition. |
Neukom I Raphael Neukom No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era 2019 |
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> Counter arguments against Neukom
> Counter arguments in relation to Climate History
