Economics Dictionary of ArgumentsHome
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| Decision theory: Decision theory is the study of how to make optimal decisions in the face of uncertainty. It is a branch of applied probability theory and analytic philosophy.
Decision theory uses mathematical models to represent decision problems and to identify the best decision to make in a given situation. These models take into account the different options that are available, the probabilities of different outcomes, and the value of different outcomes.
_____________Annotation: The above characterizations of concepts are neither definitions nor exhausting presentations of problems related to them. Instead, they are intended to give a short introduction to the contributions below. – Lexicon of Arguments. | |||
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Nicolas de Condorcet on Decision Theory - Dictionary of Arguments
Sunstein I 25 Decision Theory/Collective Intelligence/Condorcet/Sunstein: the accuracy of the judgments to which statistically selected groups arrive is best explained by Condorcet's theorem. (1) Def Jury Theorem/Condorcet/Sunstein: in the case of a yes/no question with a 50% chance for each of the two outputs, the probability of a correct answer tends towards 100% if the size of the asked group increases. Sunstein: Groups here are better than individuals and larger groups better than small ones, as long as two conditions are met: 1. the majority rule is applied, 2. each person is probably more likely to be right than wrong. I 26 The phenomenal success of websites such as the Zagat Survey (which deals with restaurant ratings etc.) is due to Condorcet's Jury Theorem. (2) Democracy/Sunstein: even for justifications of democracy the theorem is used. (3) >Democracy, >Collective intelligence. I 27 Conditions/Condorcet: 1. It should not matter to the participants whether their votes would be decisive. 2. The parties involved should not be influenced by the votes of the others. 3. The likelihood that a participant is right should be statistically independent of the likelihood that another participant is right. (4) I 28 Sunstein: it turned out that the Jury Theorem also applies if the 3rd condition is violated. (5) Problems/Sunstein: if the probability of group members being wrong increases, the probability of a wrong overall result increases, too. I 29 There are examples of groups in which misconceptions prevail: For example, 93% of Americans believe that Arab terrorists destroyed the World Trade Center, but only 11% of Kuwaitis believe this. In order for Condorcet's theorem to be applied, we must assume a certain level of information from the participants. >Information. I 42 Errors: in many areas of knowledge, groups of participants do not have purely accidental errors, but there is a certain system of misconceptions. >Errors, >Deceptions, >Misinformation. 1. See William P. Bottom et al., “Propagation of Individual Bias through Group Judgment: Error in the Treatment of Asymmetrically Informative Signals,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 25 (2002): 152–54. 2. See Zagat Survey Web site, http://www.zagat.com/about/about.aspx. 3. See Goodin, Reflective Democracy, 91–108. 4. Siehe . Bottom et al., “Propagation of Individual Bias through Group Judgment, p. 153 5. ibid._____________Explanation of symbols: Roman numerals indicate the source, arabic numerals indicate the page number. The corresponding books are indicated on the right hand side. ((s)…): Comment by the sender of the contribution. Translations: Dictionary of Arguments The note [Concept/Author], [Author1]Vs[Author2] or [Author]Vs[term] resp. "problem:"/"solution:", "old:"/"new:" and "thesis:" is an addition from the Dictionary of Arguments. If a German edition is specified, the page numbers refer to this edition. |
Condo I N. de Condorcet Tableau historique des progrès de l’ esprit humain Paris 2004 Sunstein I Cass R. Sunstein Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge Oxford 2008 Sunstein II Cass R. Sunstein #Republic: Divided Democracy in the Age of Social Media Princeton 2017 |
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> Counter arguments against Condorcet
> Counter arguments in relation to Decision Theory
