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| Disputed term/author/ism | Author |
Entry |
Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sanctions Effectiveness | Pape | Pape I 106 Sanctions effectiveness/PapeVsSanctions/Pape: Even if sanctions become somewhat more effective after the Cold War, they still have far to go before they can be a reliable alternative to military force. First, sanctions have been successful less than 5 percent of the time, not 34 percent of the time as HSE* claim. >HSE/Sanctions/Hufbauer. Thus the world would have to change considerably before sanctions could become a credible alternative to force. Second, it is not clear that the early burst of political cooperation among the world's leading economic powers that we saw in the early 1990s will continue. For example, U.S.-Japanese relations have become somewhat rockier while the domestic institutions and foreign policies of both China and Russia are highly uncertain. And none of these countries is likely to adopt Western policies without first thinking of their own interests. Third, the key reason sanctions fail is not related to the cooperation of sanctioning states but to the nature of the target. Iraq, for example, has been subjected to the most extreme sanctions in history - 48 percent of its GNP has been eliminated by sanctions for over five years-and it has not buckled. Rather, the key reason that sanctions fail is that modern states are not fragile.(1) Pape I 107 Even unpopular ruling elites can often protect themselves and their supporters by shifting the economic burden of sanctions onto opponents or disenfranchised groups. International cooperation: (…) the deductive case that greater multilateral cooperation will make economic sanctions more effective relies on two expectations: that greater cooperation will increase the economic punishment on target states and, more critically, that increased punishment will make targets more likely to concede. Pape I 108 (…) if there is reason to believe that increased coordination of economic sanctions will lead to greater success in the future, it will have to do so by achieving dramatically higher levels of economic punishment than sanctions have achieved in the past. >Sanctions, >Sanctions consequences, >Sanctions debate, >Sanctions effectiveness, >Sanctions evasion, >Sanctions history, >Sanctions policies, >Sanctions theory, >Trade sanctions, >Financial sanctions, >Trade wars, >Payment systems. * Hufbauer, Gary C., Jeffrey J. Schott, and Kimberly A. Elliott. 1990. Economic Sanctions Reconsidered: History and Current Policy. 2nd ed. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute. 1. For an analysis of the weaknesses of economic punishment as a coercive strategy, see Pape, Bombing to Win, pp. 21-27. |
Pape I Robert A. Pape Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work International Security, Volume 22, Issue 2 (Autumn, 1997), 90-136. 1997 |
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