Psychology Dictionary of Arguments

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Prediction: Prediction is the process of making a statement about what will happen in the future. It can be based on past experience, current trends, or expert knowledge. See also Statements, Assertions, Method, Knowledge, Future, Certainty.
Annotation: The above characterizations of concepts are neither definitions nor exhausting presentations of problems related to them. Instead, they are intended to give a short introduction to the contributions below. – Lexicon of Arguments.

Author Concept Summary/Quotes Sources

Chris Frith on Prediction - Dictionary of Arguments

Learning/prediction/prognosis/Frith: thesis: we learn through prediction. The brain uses mistakes in the prediction to make it better next time.
, >Trial-an-Error.
Solution: the brain makes two different predictions about my movements:
1. inverse model: which command sequence will generate the motion? The brain must "conclude back" from the output of the motion device to its input.
2. forward model: what movements will occur when a sequence of commands are sent?
Test: can only be done by real movement.
I 140
N.B.: it does not need a real movement to test whether both predictions are compatible.
Brain: the brain can adjust my models (forward and backward) without making a movement.
Def Helmholtz Machine/Frith: the Helmholtz Maschine is a machine that can learn in this way: to compare the backward and the forward model without performing the movement already.
Forward model: what movement is there when I send this command?
Backward model: what commands must have been sent for this movement to occur?
N.B.: that happens in sleep.
Wake-Sleep Algorithm: uses two types of prediction:
1. Recognition: predicts which object will trigger these sensory sensations (backward).
2. Generate: predicts which sensations this object will produce (forward).
I 166
Prediction/error/Bayesian Theorem/Frith: what happens if a mistake is noticed in the prediction?
Backwards: the activity pattern that should be perceived by the eyes, ears, etc.: P (X I A).
Mistake: helps us to come to a better understanding of the world.
P (A I X): is this new conception (update).
Correction: the brain now runs through a loop, in which each time a different activity pattern is predicted. The error is reduced every time.
Knowledge: if the error is small enough, the brain "knows" what is outside. However, the brain continues to go through this process incessantly.
>Brain, >Brain states, >Brain/Frith, >Knowledge.

Explanation of symbols: Roman numerals indicate the source, arabic numerals indicate the page number. The corresponding books are indicated on the right hand side. ((s)…): Comment by the sender of the contribution. Translations: Dictionary of Arguments
The note [Concept/Author], [Author1]Vs[Author2] or [Author]Vs[term] resp. "problem:"/"solution:", "old:"/"new:" and "thesis:" is an addition from the Dictionary of Arguments. If a German edition is specified, the page numbers refer to this edition.

Frith I
Chris Frith
Making up the Mind: How the Brain Creates Our Mental World, Hoboken/NJ 2007
German Edition:
Wie unser Gehirn die Welt erschafft Heidelberg 2013

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